How Am I Going to Vote This time

The General Elections have started today in the Northeast of India. Over the next ~6 weeks, approximately 850 million Indian citizens would have a chance to cast their vote to choose the next government at the Center.

The intelligentsia is much more active and involved in the world’s largest democratic process than ever before. For the first time, I have decided to share with everyone how I am going to vote this time! The stakes are too high, and we all need to share our perspectives as well as understand others’ thoughts.

But, first of all, we all need to cast our vote. But, for many, the question remains – does my single vote has any leverage? There has been a lot of cynicism, but we need to overcome this. As with any investment or effort, you can maximize the impact with one vote. It is up to YOU. You may want to read some ideas in my previous blog – The Power of 1 Vote.

Let me share the process I have used to decide who to vote for. As with many things in life, I used the process of elimination.

Many of the Regional Parties have done a good job in the states where they have had the opportunity to form the government. However, more often than not their agenda is regional, very focused on the state, almost partisan when looked at the point of view of India. Not that the state level issues are not important, but these cannot become the force for India as a nation. Imagine a combination of regional parties forming the government at the Centre, and we will have a khichdi – not a national level vision that we so direly need. They will get involved in their own pushes and pulls, and we, the nation, would suffer. We have seen this before too. Hence, this option was out for me pretty quickly.

This now leaves the Congress led UPA, the BJP led NDA and of course, the new entrant AAP.

The Congress party has had ~60 years to govern the country including the last 10. If we look at what’s remaining to be done, I do not feel confident of entrusting them to form the government this time. What has especially shaken my faith in them is the huge amount of corruption and scandals that have been linked to them. And what has shocked the nation is the way they have dealt with it – taking a grand stand on the one hand, and giving lip service when it comes to living the principle they are espousing. Secondly, in the last 10 years, the prestige and importance of the highest executive in the country, the Prime Minister, has been eroded. The real power center has been the Congress leadership, and that too its president. This is perhaps one of the reasons why the current prime minister did not speak publicly. Perhaps he did not have the confidence that what he says would be honored. Lastly, with all the experienced leaders in Congress, who have played a very significant role in their career of 30-40 years, how come the default choice of leadership automatically falls on a person whose family name starts with G? There is no experience or track record to show. I am very circumspect of voting for a party given these misgivings.

The Aam Admi Party came to the fore with a massive success in the Delhi State Assembly Elections. They caught the imagination of the people through their passion for removing corruption, of clean politics that was not focused on caste or other vote bank politics, and their insistence on clean funds. They have created a new political paradigm through this and have put a lot of competitive pressure on the other political parties who in general have taken the citizens for granted. However, AAP has certain shortcomings. They do not have any experience of governance, and for the short time they formed the government in Delhi, their actions did not generate the confidence. They need to transform themselves into a credible organization with a national long terms vision and have to have significant experience of governance before they can be entrusted to form the government at the Center. At this time, they appear to be a group of protestors, who have credibly posed a good challenge. But then, it is unimagined-able for the shareholders of a company to make a great union leader as the CEO of the company. For the latter, he/she needs to show different characteristics, capability and experience. I would like AAP to remain as a challenger in the political scenario and would consider voting for them at the village or municipal or state level. Once they show the gumption and create a successful track record, the nation can consider them as a viable alternative at the national level.

Hence, this time the choice for me is clear. Vote for the BJP or one of the political parties associated with the NDA. Not that they are doodh-ke-dhuley as one of my friends told me. However, they have chosen a charismatic leader as their prime ministerial candidates – he has a successful track record, has a vision, and has shown the courage to pursue convictions. There is a famous saying that Strategy = Execution, and we have a great need right now not only to have a vision and strategy, but the capability to follow through on implementation. Under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the NDA had done a good job. Their top leadership has a lot of experience and in general upright/honest people. The party itself is one of the most democratic when it comes to its own governance, and a person who started at the bottom as a volunteer can actually aspire to become a top leader in the party. Given the situation India is in, I think they are the best bet right now.

And when deciding to vote, let us vote to make a strong and stable government at the center and not get swayed by the local factors and who the local candidate is. Vote for the party or democratic alliance. Of course, strongly reject those candidates who have a criminal background or involved in scams and corruption. All political parties need to get a clear message that this would not work.

We need to vote for change.

Building India - Elections and Voting

Let us have a look at the following perspective:

1. A Lok Sabha constituency has about 15 lakh voters.
2. On an average, about 50% people vote, i.e. 7.5 lakh.
3. Winner usually gets 1/3^rd of the votes, i.e., 2.5 lakh votes.
4. The 1^st runner up usually loses by up to 50,000 votes.
5. Most people in the middle class (including you and me) don’t vote.
6. Actually, we do not count for the politicians! Has anyone from any political party approached you yet?
7. Basically, the politicians know that we do not vote, hence we do not count.
8. People in the economically and/or academically poor segment vote, and hence are counted by the politicians!
9. Who can make a bigger contribution in making India a better place? The guys who usually vote or us? Obviously us, because we have the experience and ability.
10. If only 3.5% of the people who don’t vote decide to vote for the 1^st runners up, he/she would emerge as the winner! This is the power we have.
11. If 1/3^rd of the people who do not vote decide to vote, they can choose anyone they want as the MP!
12. But we don’t vote because we think that our single vote won’t matter! But, if we join together, it does matter.
13. The 2^nd reason we don’t vote is because there is no one good enough to be selected. But the point is that they are being selected anyway.
14. When the choice is between devil and the deep sea, choose the one who is less evil. If we can get this person to win, then he/she knows we have the power, and will listen to us. Next time, we can negotiate with this party for better results and performance and less corruption. Gradually, the system can get cleaned.
15. This may be somewhat slow, but it would work. All you have to do is to cast your vote tomorrow.

Actually, you can do a little more, with only some effort. Please read the following:

In a T20 match, if we have to make 15 runs in the last over, it is not easy, but good teams know that they can do it. So imagine that you are on the crease in the last over, and a six, a couple of fours combined with a single would take you home, as a winner.

Here is how we can bat in this last over :)

1. The Single: Make sure that you cast your vote tomorrow.
2. The first Four: Call at least 20 of your family members and make sure that they cast their vote.
3. The second Four: Call 10 of your friends and neighbours, and make sure they cast their vote - each family will have 3 voters on an average, this means 30 people cast their votes.
4. With the above, you have got 51 people to cast their vote.
5. The Sixer: Inspire 5 people to do the above – this means another 255 people will cast their votes.

Tell people not to worry about the bouncers (like hot weather) or the wide deliveries (we are going for a movie), etc.

If 5000 people do the above between now and tomorrow evening, 12.75 lakh people will cast votes tomorrow, majority of who may not have cast their votes otherwise! This can make a big difference to who the winner is. Generally, the difference between the winner and 1^st runners-up is not more than 50,000 votes.

So, let us all get ready, only one more over left, this is the time to give our best.

Let’s vote for change.